Tuesday, November 2, 2010
forex trading
3:58 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
forex trading
3:54 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Forex Pivot Points
7:34 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
Are you all excited? It's your last year in junior high before you head off to high school!
Professional traders and market makers use pivot points to identify potential support and resistance levels. Simply put, a pivot point and its support/resistance levels are areas at which the direction of price movement can possibly change.
The reason why pivot points are so enticing?
It's because they are OBJECTIVE.
Unlike some of the other indicators that we've taught you about already, there's no discretion involved.
In many ways, pivot points are very similar to Fibonacci levels. Because so many people are looking at those levels, they almost become self-fulfilling.
The major difference between the two is that with Fibonacci, there is still some subjectivity involved in picking Swing Highs and Swing Lows. With pivot points, traders typically use the same method for calculating them.
Many traders keep an eye on these levels and you should too.
Pivot points are especially useful to short-term traders who are looking to take advantage of small price movements. Just like normal support and resistance levels, traders can choose to trade the bounce or the break of these levels.
Range-bound traders use pivot points to identify reversal points. They see pivot points as areas where they can place their buy or sell orders.
Breakout traders use pivot points to recognize key levels that need to be broken for a move to be classified as a real deal breakout.
Here is an example of pivot points plotted on a 1-hour EUR/USD chart:
As you can see here, horizontal support and resistance levels are placed on your chart. And look - they're marked out nicely for you! How convenient is that?!
Here's quick rundown on what those acronyms mean:
PP stands for Pivot Point.
S stands for Support.
R stands for Resistance.
But don't get too caught up in thinking "S1 has to be support" or "R1 has to be resistance." We'll explain why later.
In the following lessons, you will learn how to calculate pivot points, the different types of pivot points and most importantly, how you can add pivot points to your trading toolbox!
Chart Patterns Schmatterns
7:32 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
By now you have an arsenal of weapons to use when you battle the market. In this lesson, you will add yet another weapon: CHART PATTERNS!
Think of chart patterns as a land mine detector because, once you finish this lesson, you will be able to spot "explosions" on the charts before they even happen, potentially making you a lot of money in the process.
Chart patterns are like that funny feeling you get in your tummy right before you let a fart explode.
Don't you wish had a chart to detect this explosion?
In this lesson, we will teach you basic chart patterns and formations. When correctly identified, it usually leads to an explosive breakout, so watch out!
Remember, our goal is to spot big movements before they happen so that we can ride them out and rake in the cash. After all, who doesn't want to have a pool of cash to swim in like Richie Rich?
Chart formations will greatly help us spot conditions where the market is ready to break out. They can also indicate whether the price will continue in its current direction or reverse so we'll also be devising some nifty trade strategies for these patterns.
Don't worry, we'll give you a neat little cheat sheet to help you remember all these cool patterns and strategies!
Here's the list of patterns that we're going to cover:
- Double Top and Double Bottom
- Head and Shoulders and Inverse Head and Shoulders
- Rising and Falling Wedges
- Bullish and Bearish Rectangles
- Bearish and Bullish Pennants
- Triangles (Symmetrical, Ascending, and Descending)
next lesson
Leading vs. Lagging Indicators
7:30 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
Leading vs. Lagging Indicators
We've already covered a lot of tools that can help you analyze potential trending and range bound trade opportunities. Still doing great so far? Awesome! Let's move on.
In this lesson, we're going to streamline your use of these chart indicators.
We want you to fully understand the strengths and weaknesses of each tool, so you'll be able to determine which ones work for you and which ones don't.
Let's discuss some concepts first. There are two types of indicators: leading and lagging.
A leading indicator gives a signal before the new trend or reversal occurs.
A lagging indicator gives a signal after the trend has started and basically informs you "Hey buddy, pay attention, the trend has started and you're missing the boat."
You're probably thinking, "Ooooh, I'm going to get rich with leading indicators!" since you would be able to profit from a new trend right at the start.
You're right.
You would "catch" the entire trend every single time, IF the leading indicator was correct every single time. But it won't be.
When you use leading indicators, you will experience a lot of fakeouts. Leading indicators are notorious for giving bogus signals which could "mislead" you.
Get it? Leading indicators that "mislead" you?
Haha. Man we're so funny we even crack ourselves up.
The other option is to use lagging indicators, which aren't as prone to bogus signals.
Lagging indicators only give signals after the price change is clearly forming a trend. The downside is that you'd be a little late in entering a position.
Often the biggest gains of a trend occur in the first few bars, so by using a lagging indicator you could potentially miss out on much of the profit. And that sucks.
It's kinda like wearing bell-bottoms in the 1980s and thinking you're so cool and hip with fashion....
For the purpose of this lesson, let's broadly categorize all of our technical indicators into one of two categories:
- Leading indicators or oscillators
- Lagging, trend-following, or momentum indicators
While the two can be supportive of each other, they're more likely to conflict with each other. We're not saying that one or the other should be used exclusively, but you must understand the potential pitfalls of each.
next lesson
Bollinger Bands
7:28 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
Congratulations on making it to the 5th grade! Each time you make it to the next grade you continue to add more and more tools to your trader's toolbox.
"What's a trader's toolbox?" you ask.
Simple!
Let's compare trading to building a house. You wouldn't use a hammer on a screw, right? Nor would you use a buzz saw to drive in nails. There's a proper tool for each situation.
Just like in trading, some trading tools and indicators are best used in particular environments or situations. So, the more tools you have, the better you can adapt to the ever changing market environment.
Or if you want to focus on a few specific trading environments or tools, that's cool too. It's good to have a specialist when installing your electricity or plumbing in a house, just like it's cool to be a Bollinger band or Moving Average expert.
There are a million different ways to grab some pips!
For this lesson, as you learn about these indicators, think of each as a new tool that you can add to that toolbox of yours.
You might not necessarily use all of these tools, but it's always nice to have plenty of options, right? You might even find one that you understand and comfortable enough to master on its own. Now, enough about tools already!
Let's get started!
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger bands are used to measure a market's volatility.
Basically, this little tool tells us whether the market is quiet or whether the market is LOUD! When the market is quiet, the bands contract and when the market is LOUD, the bands expand.
Notice on the chart below that when price is quiet, the bands are close together. When price moves up, the bands spread apart.
That's all there is to it. Yes, we could go on and bore you by going into the history of the Bollinger band, how it is calculated, the mathematical formulas behind it, and so on and so forth, but we really didn't feel like typing it all out.
In all honesty, you don't need to know any of that junk. We think it's more important that we show you some ways you can apply the Bollinger bands to your trading.
Note: If you really want to learn about the calculations of a Bollinger band, then you can go to www.bollingerbands.com.
The Bollinger Bounce
One thing you should know about Bollinger bands is that price tends to return to the middle of the bands. That is the whole idea behind the Bollinger bounce. By looking at the chart below, can you tell us where the price might go next?
If you said down, then you are correct! As you can see, the price settled back down towards the middle area of the bands.
What you just saw was a classic Bollinger bounce. The reason these bounces occur is because Bollinger bands act like dynamic support and resistance levels.
The longer the time frame you are in, the stronger these bands tend to be. Many traders have developed systems that thrive on these bounces and this strategy is best used when the market is ranging and there is no clear trend.
Now let's look at a way to use Bollinger bands when the market does trend.
Bollinger Squeeze
The Bollinger squeeze is pretty self-explanatory. When the bands squeeze together, it usually means that a breakout is getting ready to happen.
If the candles start to break out above the top band, then the move will usually continue to go up. If the candles start to break out below the lower band, then price will usually continue to go down.
Looking at the chart above, you can see the bands squeezing together. The price has just started to break out of the top band. Based on this information, where do you think the price will go?
If you said up, you are correct again!
This is how a typical Bollinger squeeze works.
This strategy is designed for you to catch a move as early as possible. Setups like these don't occur every day, but you can probably spot them a few times a week if you are looking at a 15-minute chart.
There are many other things you can do with Bollinger bands, but these are the 2 most common strategies associated with them. It's time to put this in your trader's toolbox before we move on to the next indicator.
next lesson
Silky Smooth Moving Averages
7:10 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
A moving average is simply a way to smooth out price action over time. By "moving average", we mean that you are taking the average closing price of a currency pair for the last 'X' number of periods. On a chart, it would look like this:
Like every indicator, a moving average indicator is used to help us forecast future prices. By looking at the slope of the moving average, you can better determine the potential direction of market prices.
As we said, moving averages smooth out price action.
There are different types of moving averages and each of them has their own level of "smoothness".
Generally, the smoother the moving average, the slower it is to react to the price movement.
The choppier the moving average, the quicker it is to react to the price movement. To make a moving average smoother, you should get the average closing prices over a longer time period.
Now, you're probably thinking, "C'mon, let's get to the good stuff. How can I use this to trade?"
In this section, we first need to explain to you the two major types of moving averages:
- Simple
- Exponential
We'll also teach you how to calculate them and give the pros and cons of each. Just like in every other lesson in the BabyPips.com School of Pipsology, you need to know the basics first!
After you've got that on lockdown like Argentinian soccer player Lionel Messi's ball-handling skills, we'll teach you the different ways to use moving averages and how to incorporate them into your trading strategy.
By the end of this lesson, you'll be just as smooth as Messi's!
Are you ready?
If you are, give us a "Heck yeah!"
If not, go back and reread the intro.
Once you're pumped and ready to go, head to the next page.
next lesson
Fibonacci Who?
7:08 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
We will be using Fibonacci ratios a lot in our trading so you better learn it and love it like your mother's home cooking. Fibonacci is a huge subject and there are many different Fibonacci studies with weird-sounding names but we're going to stick to two: retracement and extension.
Let us first start by introducing you to the Fib man himself...Leonardo Fibonacci.
No, Leonardo Fibonacci isn't some famous chef. Actually, he was a famous Italian mathematician, also known as a super duper uber ultra geek.
He had an "Aha!" moment when he discovered a simple series of numbers that created ratios describing the natural proportions of things in the universe.
The ratios arise from the following number series: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144...
This series of numbers is derived by starting with 1 followed by 2 and then adding 1 + 2 to get 3, the third number. Then, adding 2 + 3 to get 5, the fourth number, and so on.
After the first few numbers in the sequence, if you measure the ratio of any number to the succeeding higher number, you get .618. For example, 34 divided by 55 equals .618.
If you measure the ratio between alternate numbers you get .382. For example, 34 divided by 89 = 0.382 and that's as far as into the explanation as we'll go.
These ratios are called the "golden mean". Okay that's enough mumbo jumbo. With all those numbers, you could put an elephant to sleep. We'll just cut to the chase; these are the ratios you HAVE to know:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764
Fibonacci Extension Levels
0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618
You won't really need to know how to calculate all of this. Your charting software will do all the work for you. Besides, we've got a nice Fibonacci calculator that can magically calculate those levels for you. However, it's always good to be familiar with the basic theory behind the indicator so you'll have the knowledge to impress your date.
Traders use the Fibonacci retracement levels as potential support and resistance areas. Since so many traders watch these same levels and place buy and sell orders on them to enter trades or place stops, the support and resistance levels tend to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Traders use the Fibonacci extension levels as profit taking levels. Again, since so many traders are watching these levels to place buy and sell orders to take profits, this tool tends to work more often than not due to self-fulfilling expectations.
Most charting software includes both Fibonacci retracement levels and extension level tools. In order to apply Fibonacci levels to your charts, you'll need to identify Swing High and Swing Low points.
A Swing High is a candlestick with at least two lower highs on both the left and right of itself.
A Swing Low is a candlestick with at least two higher lows on both the left and right of itself.
You got all that? Don't worry, we'll explain retracements, extensions, and most importantly, how to grab some pips using the Fib tool in the following sections.
next lesson
What is a Japanese Candlestick?
6:38 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
What is a Japanese Candlestick?
While we briefly covered candlestick charting analysis in the previous lesson, we'll now dig in a little and discuss them more in detail. Let's do a quick review first.
What is Candlestick Trading?
Back in the day when Godzilla was still a cute little lizard, the Japanese created their own old school version of technical analysis to trade rice. That's right, rice.
A westerner by the name of Steve Nison "discovered" this secret technique called "Japanese candlesticks", learning it from a fellow Japanese broker. Steve researched, studied, lived, breathed, ate candlesticks, and began to write about it. Slowly, this secret technique grew in popularity in the 90s. To make a long story short, without Steve Nison, candlestick charts might have remained a buried secret. Steve Nison is Mr. Candlestick.
Okay, so what the heck are forex candlesticks?
The best way to explain is by using a picture:
Candlesticks can be used for any time frame, whether it be one day, one hour, 30-minutes - whatever you want! Candlesticks are used to describe the price action during the given time frame.
Candlesticks are formed using the open, high, low, and close of the chosen time period.
- If the close is above the open, then a hollow candlestick (usually displayed as white) is drawn.
- If the close is below the open, then a filled candlestick (usually displayed as black) is drawn.
- The hollow or filled section of the candlestick is called the "real body" or body.
- The thin lines poking above and below the body display the high/low range and are called shadows.
- The top of the upper shadow is the "high".
- The bottom of the lower shadow is the "low".
next lesson
Support and Resistance
6:34 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
Support and resistance is one of the most widely used concepts in trading. Strangely enough, everyone seems to have their own idea on how you should measure support and resistance.
Let's take a look at the basics first.
Look at the diagram above. As you can see, this zigzag pattern is making its way up (bull market). When the market moves up and then pulls back, the highest point reached before it pulled back is now resistance.
As the market continues up again, the lowest point reached before it started back is now support. In this way resistance and support are continually formed as the market oscillates over time. The reverse is true for the downtrend.
Plotting Support and Resistance
One thing to remember is that support and resistance levels are not exact numbers.
Often times you will see a support or resistance level that appears broken, but soon after find out that the market was just testing it. With candlestick charts, these "tests" of support and resistance are usually represented by the candlestick shadows.
Notice how the shadows of the candles tested the 1.4700 support level. At those times it seemed like the market was "breaking" support. In hindsight we can see that the market was merely testing that level.
So how do we truly know if support and resistance was broken?
There is no definite answer to this question. Some argue that a support or resistance level is broken if the market can actually close past that level. However, you will find that this is not always the case.
Let's take our same example from above and see what happened when the price actually closed past the 1.4700 support level.
In this case, price had closed below the 1.4700 support level but ended up rising back up above it.
If you had believed that this was a real breakout and sold this pair, you would've been seriously hurtin'!
Looking at the chart now, you can visually see and come to the conclusion that the support was not actually broken; it is still very much intact and now even stronger.
To help you filter out these false breakouts, you should think of support and resistance more of as "zones" rather than concrete numbers.
One way to help you find these zones is to plot support and resistance on a line chart rather than a candlestick chart. The reason is that line charts only show you the closing price while candlesticks add the extreme highs and lows to the picture.
These highs and lows can be misleading because often times they are just the "knee-jerk" reactions of the market. It's like when someone is doing something really strange, but when asked about it, he or she simply replies, "Sorry, it's just a reflex."
When plotting support and resistance, you don't want the reflexes of the market. You only want to plot its intentional movements.
Looking at the line chart, you want to plot your support and resistance lines around areas where you can see the price forming several peaks or valleys.
Other interesting tidbits about support and resistance:
- When the price passes through resistance, that resistance could potentially become support.
- The more often price tests a level of resistance or support without breaking it, the stronger the area of resistance or support is.
- When a support or resistance level breaks, the strength of the follow-through move depends on how strongly the broken support or resistance had been holding.
With a little practice, you'll be able to spot potential support and resistance areas easily. In the next lesson, we'll teach you how to trade diagonal support and resistance lines, otherwise known as trend lines.
next lesson
Types of Charts
6:31 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
- Line chart
- Bar chart
- Candlestick chart
Now, we'll explain each of the charts, and let you know what you should know about each of them.
Line Charts
A simple line chart draws a line from one closing price to the next closing price. When strung together with a line, we can see the general price movement of a currency pair over a period of time.
Here is an example of a line chart for EUR/USD:
Bar Charts
A bar chart is a little more complex. It shows the opening and closing prices, as well as the highs and lows. The bottom of the vertical bar indicates the lowest traded price for that time period, while the top of the bar indicates the highest price paid.
The vertical bar itself indicates the currency pair's trading range as a whole.
The horizontal hash on the left side of the bar is the opening price, and the right-side horizontal hash is the closing price.
Here is an example of a bar chart for EUR/USD:
Take note, throughout our lessons, you will see the word "bar" in reference to a single piece of data on a chart.
A bar is simply one segment of time, whether it is one day, one week, or one hour. When you see the word 'bar' going forward, be sure to understand what time frame it is referencing.
Bar charts are also called "OHLC" charts, because they indicate the Open, the High, the Low, and the Close for that particular currency. Here's an example of a price bar:
Open: The little horizontal line on the left is the opening price
High: The top of the vertical line defines the highest price of the time period
Low: The bottom of the vertical line defines the lowest price of the time period
Close: The little horizontal line on the right is the closing price
Candlesticks Charts
Candlestick chart show the same information as a bar chart, but in a prettier, graphic format.
Candlestick bars still indicate the high-to-low range with a vertical line.
However, in candlestick charting, the larger block (or body) in the middle indicates the range between the opening and closing prices. Traditionally, if the block in the middle is filled or colored in, then the currency closed lower than it opened.
In the following example, the 'filled color' is black. For our 'filled' blocks, the top of the block is the opening price, and the bottom of the block is the closing price. If the closing price is higher than the opening price, then the block in the middle will be "white" or hollow or unfilled.
Here at BabyPips.com, we don't like to use the traditional black and white candlesticks. They just look so unappealing. And since we spend so much time looking at charts, we feel it's easier to look at a chart that's colored.
A color television is much better than a black and white television, so why not splash some color in those candlestick charts?
We simply substituted green instead of white, and red instead of black. This means that if the price closed higher than it opened, the candlestick would be green.
If the price closed lower than it opened, the candlestick would be red.
In our later lessons, you will see how using green and red candles will allow you to "see" things on the charts much faster, such as uptrend/downtrends and possible reversal points.
For now, just remember that we use red and green candlesticks instead of black and white and we will be using these colors from now on.
Check out these candlesticks...BabyPips.com style! Awww yeeaaah! You know you like that!
Here is an example of a candlestick chart for EUR/USD. Isn't it pretty?
The purpose of candlestick charting is strictly to serve as a visual aid, since the exact same information appears on an OHLC bar chart. The advantages of candlestick charting are:
- Candlesticks are easy to interpret, and are a good place for beginners to start figuring out chart analysis.
- Candlesticks are easy to use! Your eyes adapt almost immediately to the information in the bar notation. Plus, research shows that visuals help in studying, it might help with trading as well!
- Candlesticks and candlestick patterns have cool names such as the shooting star, which helps you to remember what the pattern means.
- Candlesticks are good at identifying marketing turning points - reversals from an uptrend to a downtrend or a downtrend to an uptrend. You will learn more about this later.
Now that you know why candlesticks are so cool, it's time to let you know that we will be using candlestick charts for most, if not all of chart examples on this site.
next lesson
The Big Three
6:26 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
Congratulations! You've gotten through the Pre-School and, with a few boo-boos here and there, you are ready to begin your first day of class!
You did go through the Pre-School, right????
By now you've learned some history about the forex, how it works, what affects the prices, blah blah blah.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ.
We know what you're thinking...
BORING!
SHOW
ME
HOW
TO
MAKE
MONEY
ALREADY!!!!
Well say no more friends because here is where your journey as a forex trader begins...
This is your last chance to turn back...
Take the red pill, forget everything, and we'll take you back to where you were before.
You can go back to living your average life in your 9-5 job and work for someone else for the rest of your life...
OR...
You can take the green pill, which is fully loaded with the dollar extract, and learn how you can make money for yourself in the most active market in the world, simply by using a little brain power.
Just remember, your education will never stop. Even after you graduate from the School of Pipsology, you must constantly pursue as much knowledge as you can, so that you can become a true FOREX MASTER! The learning never ends!
Are you ready to make that commitment?
Now pop that green pill in, wash it down with some delicious chocolate milk, and grab your lunchbox... the School of Pipsology is now in session!
Note: the green pill was made with a brainwashing serum. You will now obey everything that we tell you to do! Mwuahahaha! <--- evil laugh
Three Types of Market Analysis
To begin, let's look at three ways on how you would analyze and develop ideas to trade the market. There are three basic types of market analysis:
- Technical Analysis
- Fundamental Analysis
- Sentiment Analysis
There has always been a constant debate as to which analysis is better, but to tell you the truth, you need to know all three.
It's kind of like standing on a three-legged stool - if one of the legs is weak, the stool will break under your weight and you'll fall flat on your face. The same holds true in trading. If your analysis on any of the three types of trading is weak and you ignore it, there's a good chance that it will cause you to lose out on your trade!
next lesson
How You Make Money in Forex
6:23 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
Placing a trade in the foreign exchange market is simple: the mechanics of a trade are very similar to those found in other markets (like the stock market), so if you have any experience in trading, you should be able to pick it up pretty quickly.
The object of forex trading is to exchange one currency for another in the expectation that the price will change, so that the currency you bought will increase in value compared to the one you sold.
Example:
| Trader's Action | EUR | USD |
| You purchase 10,000 euros at the EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.1800 | +10,000 | -11,800 |
| Two weeks later, you exchange your 10,000 euros back into U.S. dollar at the exchange rate of 1.2500 | -10,000 | +12,500** |
| You earn a profit of $700 | 0 | +700 |
*EUR 10,000 x 1.18 = US $11,800
** EUR 10,000 x 1.25 = US $12,500
An exchange rate is simply the ratio of one currency valued against another currency. For example, the USD/CHF exchange rate indicates how many U.S. dollars can purchase one Swiss franc, or how many Swiss francs you need to buy one U.S. dollar.
How to Read a Forex Quote
Currencies are always quoted in pairs, such as GBP/USD or USD/JPY. The reason they are quoted in pairs is because in every foreign exchange transaction, you are simultaneously buying one currency and selling another. Here is an example of a foreign exchange rate for the British pound versus the U.S. dollar:
The first listed currency to the left of the slash ("/") is known as the base currency (in this example, the British pound), while the second one on the right is called the counter or quote currency (in this example, the U.S. dollar).
When buying, the exchange rate tells you how much you have to pay in units of the quote currency to buy one unit of the base currency. In the example above, you have to pay 1.51258 U.S. dollars to buy 1 British pound.
When selling, the exchange rate tells you how many units of the quote currency you get for selling one unit of the base currency. In the example above, you will receive 1.51258 U.S. dollars when you sell 1 British pound.
The base currency is the "basis" for the buy or the sell. If you buy EUR/USD this simply means that you are buying the base currency and simultaneously selling the quote currency. In caveman talk, "buy EUR, sell USD."
You would buy the pair if you believe the base currency will appreciate (gain value) relative to the quote currency. You would sell the pair if you think the base currency will depreciate (lose value) relative to the quote currency.
Long/Short
First, you should determine whether you want to buy or sell.
If you want to buy (which actually means buy the base currency and sell the quote currency), you want the base currency to rise in value and then you would sell it back at a higher price. In trader's talk, this is called "going long" or taking a "long position." Just remember: long = buy.
If you want to sell (which actually means sell the base currency and buy the quote currency), you want the base currency to fall in value and then you would buy it back at a lower price. This is called "going short" or taking a "short position". Just remember: short = sell.
Bid/Ask
All forex quotes are quoted with two prices: the bid and ask. For the most part, the bid is lower than the ask price.
The bid is the price at which your broker is willing to buy the base currency in exchange for the quote currency. This means the bid is the best available price at which you (the trader) will sell to the market.
The ask is the price at which your broker will sell the base currency in exchange for the quote currency. This means the ask price is the best available price at which you will buy from the market. Another word for ask is the offer price.
The difference between the bid and the ask price is popularly known as the spread.
On the EUR/USD quote above, the bid price is 1.34568 and the ask price is 1.34588. Look at how this broker makes it so easy for you to trade away your money.
If you want to sell EUR, you click "Sell" and you will sell euros at 1.34568. If you want to buy EUR, you click "Buy" and you will buy euros at 1.34588.
next lesson
Trading Sessions
6:20 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
Trading Sessions
Now that you know what forex is, why you should trade it, and who makes up the forex market, it's about time you learned when you can trade.
Yes, it is true that the forex market is open 24 hours a day, but that doesn't mean it's always active the whole day.
You can make money trading when the market moves up, and you can even make money when the market moves down.
BUT you will have a very difficult time trying to make money when the market doesn't move at all.
And believe us, there will be times when the market is as still as the victims of Medusa. This lesson will help determine when the best times of the day are to trade.
Market Hours
Before looking at the best times to trade, we must look at what a 24 hour day in the forex world looks like.
The forex market can be broken up into four major trading sessions: the Sydney session, the Tokyo session, the London session, and the New York session. Below is a table of the open and close times for each session:
| Time Zone | EST | GMT |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney Open Sydney Close | 5:00 PM 2:00 AM | 10:00 PM 7:00 AM |
| Tokyo Open Tokyo Close | 7:00 PM 4:00 AM | 12:00 AM 9:00 AM |
| London Open London Close | 3:00 AM | 8:00 AM 5:00 PM |
| New York Open New York Close | 8:00 AM 5:00 PM | 12:00 PM 10:00 PM |
You can see that in between each session, there is a period of time where two sessions are open at the same time. From 2:00-4:00 am EST, both the Tokyo and Sydney markets are open, and from 8:00-12:00 am EST, both the London and New York markets are open.
Naturally, these are the busiest times during the market because there is more volume when two markets are open at the same time. This makes sense because during those times, all the market participants are wheelin' and dealin', which means that more money is transferring hands.
Let's take a look at the average pip movement of the major currency pairs during each trading session.| Pair | Tokyo | London | New York |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 76 | 114 | 92 |
| GBP/USD | 92 | 127 | 99 |
| USD/JPY | 51 | 66 | 59 |
| AUD/USD | 77 | 83 | 81 |
| NZD/USD | 62 | 72 | 70 |
| USD/CAD | 57 | 96 | 96 |
| USD/CHF | 67 | 102 | 83 |
| EUR/JPY | 102 | 129 | 107 |
| GBP/JPY | 118 | 151 | 132 |
| AUD/JPY | 98 | 107 | 103 |
| EUR/GBP | 78 | 61 | 47 |
| EUR/CHF | 79 | 109 | 84 |
From the table, you will see that the European session normally provides the most movement.
Let's take a more in depth look at each of the session, as well as those periods when the sessions overlap.
next lesson
Forex Market Structure
6:15 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
Unlike in trading stocks or futures, you don't need to go through a centralized exchange like the New York Stock Exchange with just one price. In the forex market, there is no single price that for a given currency at any time, which means quotes from different currency dealers vary.
This might be overwhelming at first, but this is what makes the forex market so freakin' awesome! The market is so huge and the competition between dealers is so fierce that you get the best deal almost every single time. And tell me, who does not want that?
Also, one cool thing about forex trading is that you can do it anywhere. It's just like trading baseball cards. You want that mint condition Mickey Mantle rookie card, so it is up to you to find the best deal out there. Your colleague might give up his Mickey Mantle card for just a Babe Ruth card, but your best friend will only part with his Mickey Mantle rookie card for your soul.
The FX Ladder
Even though the forex market is decentralized, it isn't pure and utter chaos! The participants in the FX market can be organized into a ladder. To better understand what we mean, here is a neat illustration:
At the very top of the forex market ladder is the interbank market. Composed of the largest banks of the world and some smaller banks, the participants of this market trade directly with each other or electronically through the Electronic Brokering Services (EBS) or the Reuters Dealing 3000-Spot Matching.
The competition between the two companies - the EBS and the Reuters Dealing 3000-Spot Matching - is similar to Coke and Pepsi. They are in constant battle for clients and continually try to one-up each other for market share. While both companies offer most currency pairs, some currency pairs are more liquid on one than the other.
For the EBS plaform, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, and USD/CHF are more liquid. Meanwhile, for the Reuters platform, GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are more liquid.
All the banks that are part of the interbank market can see the rates that each other is offering, but this doesn't necessarily mean that anyone can make deals at those prices.
Like in real life, the rates will largely dependent on the established CREDIT relationship between the trading parties. Just to name a few, there's the "B.F.F. rate," the "customer rate," and the "ex-wife-you-took-everything rate." It's like asking for a loan at your local bank. The better your credit standing and reputation with them, the better the interest rates and the larger loan you can avail.
Next on the ladder are the hedge funds, corporations, retail market makers and retail ECNs. Since these institutions do not have tight credit relationships with the participants of the interbank market, they have to do their transactions via commercial banks. This means that their rates are slightly higher and more expensive than those who are part of the interbank market.
At the very bottom of the ladder are the retail traders. It used to be very hard for us little people to engage in the forex market but, thanks to the advent of the internet, electronic trading, and retail brokers, the difficult barriers to entry in forex trading have all been taken down. This gave us the chance to play with those high up the ladder and poke them with a very long and cheap stick.
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Advantages of Forex
5:42 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
There are many benefits and advantages of trading forex. Here are just a few reasons why so many people are choosing this market:
No commissions
No clearing fees, no exchange fees, no government fees, no brokerage fees. Most retail brokers are compensated for their services through something called the "bid-ask spread".
No middlemen
Spot currency trading eliminates the middlemen and allows you to trade directly with the market responsible for the pricing on a particular currency pair.
No fixed lot size
In the futures markets, lot or contract sizes are determined by the exchanges. A standard-size contract for silver futures is 5,000 ounces. In spot forex, you determine your own lot, or position size. This allows traders to participate with accounts as small as $25 (although we'll explain later why a $25 account is a bad idea).
Low transaction costs
The retail transaction cost (the bid/ask spread) is typically less than 0.1% under normal market conditions. At larger dealers, the spread could be as low as 0.07%. Of course this depends on your leverage and all will be explained later.
A 24-hour market
There is no waiting for the opening bell. From the Monday morning opening in Australia to the afternoon close in New York, the forex market never sleeps. This is awesome for those who want to trade on a part-time basis, because you can choose when you want to trade: morning, noon, night, during breakfast, or in your sleep.
No one can corner the market
The foreign exchange market is so huge and has so many participants that no single entity (not even a central bank or the mighty Chuck Norris himself) can control the market price for an extended period of time.
Leverage
In forex trading, a small deposit can control a much larger total contract value. Leverage gives the trader the ability to make nice profits, and at the same time keep risk capital to a minimum.
For example, a forex broker may offer 50-to-1 leverage, which means that a $50 dollar margin deposit would enable a trader to buy or sell $2,500 worth of currencies. Similarly, with $500 dollars, one could trade with $25,000 dollars and so on. While this is all gravy, let's remember that leverage is a double-edged sword. Without proper risk management, this high degree of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.
High Liquidity.
Because the forex market is so enormous, it is also extremely liquid. This means that under normal market conditions, with a click of a mouse you can instantaneously buy and sell at will as there will usually be someone in the market willing to take the other side of your trade. You are never "stuck" in a trade. You can even set your online trading platform to automatically close your position once your desired profit level (a limit order) has been reached, and/or close a trade if a trade is going against you (a stop loss order).
Low Barriers to Entry
You would think that getting started as a currency trader would cost a ton of money. The fact is, when compared to trading stocks, options or futures, it doesn't. Online forex brokers offer "mini" and "micro" trading accounts, some with a minimum account deposit of $25.
We're not saying you should open an account with the bare minimum, but it does make forex trading much more accessible to the average individual who doesn't have a lot of start-up trading capital.
Free Stuff Everywhere!
Most online forex brokers offer "demo" accounts to practice trading and build your skills, along with real-time forex news and charting services.
And guess what?! They're all free!
These are very valuable resources for those who are "financially hampered," but SMART traders who would like to hone their trading skills with "play money" before opening a live trading account and risking real money.
next lesson
What is Forex?
5:30 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
trading forex is very profitable job you dont even need work again you can earn 500$ daily first you need a good English language at the end of every lesson you will find the link to the next lesson
If you've ever traveled to another country, you usually had to find a currency exchange booth at the airport, and then exchange the money you have in your wallet (if you're a dude) or purse (if you're a lady) or man purse (if you're a metrosexual) into the currency of the country you are visiting।
You go up to the counter and notice a screen displaying different exchange rates for different currencies. You find "Japanese yen" and think to yourself, "WOW! My one dollar is worth 100 yen?! And I have ten dollars! I'm going to be rich!!!" (This excitement is quickly killed when you stop by a shop in the airport afterwards to buy a can of soda and, all of a sudden, half your money is gone.)
When you do this, you've essentially participated in the forex market! You've exchanged one currency for another. Or in forex trading terms, assuming you're an American visiting Japan, you've sold dollars and bought yen.
Before you fly back home, you stop by the currency exchange booth to exchange the yen that you miraculously have left over (Tokyo is expensive!) and notice the exchange rates have changed. It's these changes in the exchanges rates that allow you to make money in the foreign exchange market.
The foreign exchange market, which is usually known as "forex" or "FX," is the largest financial market in the world. Compared to the measly $153 billion a day volume of the New York Stock Exchange, the foreign exchange market looks absolutely ginormous with its $4 TRILLION a day trade volume. Forex rocks our socks!
Let's take a moment to put this into perspective using monsters...
The largest stock market in the world, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), trades a volume of about $74 billion each day. If we used a monster to represent NYSE, it would look like this...
You hear about the NYSE in the news every day... on CNBC... on Bloomberg...on BBC... heck, you even probably hear about it at your local gym. "The NYSE is up today, blah, blah". When people talk about the "market", they usually mean the stock market. So the NYSE sounds big, it's loud and likes to make a lot of noise.
But if you actually compare it to the foreign exchange market, it would look like this...
Oooh, the NYSE looks so puny compared to forex! It doesn't stand a chance!
Check out the graph of the average daily trading volume for the forex market, New York Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, and Shanghai Stock Exchange:
The currency market is over 53 times BIGGER! It is HUGE! But hold your horses, there's a catch!
That huge $4 trillion number covers the entire global foreign exchange market, BUT retail traders (that's us) trade the spot market and that's about $1.49 trillion.
So now you know not to be fooled when you read how the forex market is so huge. It's definitely huge, but not as huge as the media would like you to believe.
next lesson
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Michael James on Money: Understanding Correlation
11:59 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
The idea of correlation can be confusing. Most of us have an idea of what seems correlated when we look at a stock chart, but this everyday idea of correlation can be very different from mathematical correlation.
Consider the following hypothetical chart of two stock indexes.
What would you guess is the correlation is between stocks indexes in this chart? Maybe 70% or 80%? They seem to move together quite a bit. When we focus on 1-year periods, the answer is a correlation of -0.2%! That's right – essentially no correlation.
However, if we look at rolling 5-year periods, the correlation is 88%. So, we get a completely different picture if we look at 1-year returns versus 5-year returns.
This discussion of 1-year and 5-year correlations can be confusing. After all, aren't we talking about 30 years here? Mathematical correlation in this context is about comparing two strings of numbers. We can make these two strings of numbers be 30 numbers long and consist of 1-year growth values, or we can make the strings 26 numbers long and consist of rolling 5-year growth values.
There is always a way to look at the numbers to get the result you want. As the saying goes, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Ring Of Fire : An Indonesian Odyssey Documentary - Psychedelic Adventure
11:24 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
"Ring Of Fire : An Indonesian Odyssey" is an educational documentary highlighting the mysterious surroundings of the Spice and Aru Islands, which are found within the archipelago that makes up the beautiful country of Indonesia.
Watch as producers Lorne and Lawrence Blair take viewers beneath the blue waters on a dive in search of pearls and deep into the green jungles with the native Bugis tribes. Running 58 minutes, this cultural adventure is a "Mystic Fire Video" and one installment of the Ring of Fire collection !
In the mid-1970s, documentary filmmakers Lorne and Lawrence Blair ventured into Indonesia. They hoped that their decade-long spiritual journey would somehow result in a feature-length film that would accurately, and eloquently convey their experiences. The Blairs ended up with five films, which were released to television and theaters under the blanket title "Ring of Fire - An Indonesian Odyssey".
Each film, or "volume," depicts a single fascinating aspect of Indonesian life and customs. The five volumes include "Spice Island Saga," "Dance of the Warriors," "East of Krakatoa", "Dream Wanderers of Borneo" & "Beyond the Ring of Fire".
The brothers sail to the islands of Komodo where they encounter the Komodo Dragon, Sumba where they witness human sacrifice, New Guinese where they meet the Asmat, and finally Bali where they build a home in a village.
British brothers Lawrence and Lorne Blair set out in the 1960s on a marvelous, thought-provoking, ten-year adventure through the 3,000-mile length of the remote Indonesian archipelago. Inspired by a dog-eared copy of Alfred Russell Wallace's The Malay Archipelago -and his nineteenth century voyage of scientific exploration and discovery--their unforgettable odyssey set sail out of the Celebes (Sulawesi) for the Spice Islands on a perilous schooner crossing with the seafaring Bugis. Tossed to and fro from home port Makassar to isolated Aru Island-stalked all the way by rotting ship beams and the specter of pirates-they were rewarded with one of the rarest sights on earth-the fluffy white plumage of the elusive Bird of Paradise.
Metaphysical, anthropological, and intellectual in tone-with a healthy dose of dry wit and humor-the Blairs take you along as they confront komodo dragons, chew betel nut in Sumba, witness a traditional Pasola battle, and herald the annual arrival on shore of the sacred nyale sea worms. Full of naive courage and boundless curiosity, they sought out Asmat headhunters/cannibals in the highlands of Papua New Guinea. Undaunted, these dream wanderers went eye to eye with the fiery blast furnace of simmering Krakatoa. They commandeered a longboat upriver and trekked through the leech-ridden jungles of Borneo with native guides on an arduous land search for the secretive, traditional Punan hunter-gatherers. Ring of Fire chronicles their cultural encounters on Java as they visited the sultan's court (and sacred "kris" knife) and an acupuncturist who harnessed yin/yang energy to heal the sick with self-generated electric charges. Open-minded and non-judgmental about the diverse religions and customs they encountered, the Blairs became deeply enchanted by trance, and by the shadow screen nether world of the wayang kulit. Their travels took them back to Sulawesi for the funeral of the last king of Tanah Torajah-into a unique architectural-animist pocket where boat-shaped roofs rise out of the cool forest floor representing ancestral sky ships on their descent from heaven to earth.
The thrill-seeking, nomadic Blairs unexpectedly found themselves permanently landlocked and suspended-mind, soul, and body-in the island Shangrila that they discovered in Bali. An artist friend in Pengosekan-a vibrantly creative community of farmers and painters-invited them to build a new house on his land. In true, cooperative Balinese style, the brothers had only to pay for the necessary raw materials (bamboo, coconut wood, and elephant grass) and the religious celebration at the completion of the structure. The people of Pengosekan freely contributed their skilled labor and artistic expertise; this shared investment in and commitment to each other's dwellings works to further bind the village together. Sleeping and learning in their open-air platform obervatory perched high above the sculpted jade rice terraces, the Blair brothers came to call Bali their very own, lifelong island of the gods. They would return time and again-in between sometimes dangerous, always enlightening meetings with natural peoples along the equatorial frontier-to their permanent home base in Bali. It is here that they fell in love with one culture and one island out of the hundreds that they visited. Lawrence and Lorne fully explored their adopted pied à terre-from startling footage of the eruption of Mt. Agung in 1963, to the cremation of famous 116-year-old Balinese artist Lempoad, to the opulent funeral procession of the last rajah of Gianyar. (When Lorne died on his beloved Bali in 1996, he was cremated and his remains returned to the sea in accordance with Bali-Hindu religious rites.) Their amazing adventures (available in book or video format) are the stuff of storybook legends-from the hidden rainforest peoples of Borneo, to islands where magicians still hold sway, to the sun-speckled spiritual haven of heart-shaped Bali.
The 10-year voyage of two filmmakers, brothers Lorne and Lawrence Blair, through the world's largest and least known archipelago - the exotic, mysterious islands of Indonesia. These island form a chain of active volcanoes that arc down and around into the Pacific to form the "Ring of Fire." To pass beyond it is to cross the threshold into another dimension, a magical land where ancient myths still flourish. East of Krakatoa - In the shadow of Java's constantly erupting volcanoes, the Blairs descend from the crater of the newly erupted "Child of Krakatoa" and encounter a world of medieval courts, mystical shadow puppet plays, forgers of magical swords, healers with supernatural powers and whole communities ruled by the powerful "Spirit of the South Seas." Back in Bali, they meet such sages as the master artist Nyoman Lempad, who was to die a conscious death on the day of his choosing at the age of 116. And among the Toraja people of the Celebes highlands, they share in the massive funeral rites of the last king of the tribe which believes its ancestors came from the stars in skyships.
Beyond the Ring of Fire
Friday, September 3, 2010
do you want to be a Billionaire ?
2:45 PM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
The concept of a billion dollars is pretty hard to fathom, which is okay because about 99.999% of us will never really have to deal with it. According to Forbes, the world has 1,011 billionaires out of nearly seven billion people, so it's not exactly an everyday occurrence. Those that do become billionaires seem to do it through a mixture of ingenuity, intelligence and timing, or they just inherit it. For the rest of us - those working average jobs, investing normally and living an average lifestyle - how long would it take to become a billionaire? Is it even possible?
IN PICTURES: World's Greatest Investors
If you're making around $50,000 per year, it won't take forever to amass a million dollars, and indeed, many people will be able to achieve that in their lifetime. But a billion dollars? That'd be 1,000 lifetimes, kind of. We'll check out a range of jobs in the U.S. and some typical investments to see how long it would take someone to become a billionaire. We'll be using the saving rate of 10% of someone's income for the year, which may be a little bit optimistic, but it gives a good picture of how long it takes to become a billionaire on an average joe's salary. (Are savings accounts your best bet when it comes to returns? Learn more in The 7 Best Places To Put Your Savings.)
Teaching Your Way To a Fortune
There are more than one million teachers in the U.S. according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the mean salary for elementary and secondary school teachers is $55,210. If you're a teacher and are able to put aside 10% of your salary every year ($5,521) then it will take around 186 years for you to become a billionaire if you have your money in a long-term savings account paying 5% interest compounded annually. This means, if you start saving when you're fresh out of college and never touch the money, you could be a billionaire when you're 208!
If you invested in a more lucrative vehicle, like the stock market, you can become a billionaire much quicker. Looking at the returns of the Dow Jones over the past 40 years, there is an average return (CAGR) of 6.68% per year. If these returns are similar for the coming years, then the teacher who puts away 10% of his or her salary per month could become a billionaire in just 145 years. If you only wanted to become a millionaire, it would take you between 46 and 47 years in a 5% savings account and around 39 years if you followed the 6.68% returns of the Dow. (To learn more, see Index Investing: The Dow Jones Industrial Average.)
High Earners
It seems nearly impossible to become a billionaire making the salary of the average American teacher, but that's not really a surprise. How about if you're in a higher salary range, like a surgeon or another specialized doctor? An average anesthesiologist in the U.S. makes $211,750, according to the BLS, and if that anesthesiologist was able to put away 10% of his or her earnings every year into our savings account it would take around 160 years to become a billionaire.
And if that anesthesiologist put their savings into an index that tracked the Dow, it would still take more than a lifetime at 124 years. With that kind of salary it seems like you just can't get there on hard work alone.
To give you more perspective, it would take a postal worker (mean salary $48,940) around 188-189 years to become a billionaire using a savings account, and 146-147 years investing in the market. It would take a lawyer (mean salary $129,020) 131-132 years to make a billion in the markets, and 168-169 to make a billion in a savings account. So, when you think of it, whether you're a lawyer, a teacher, a postal worker or a surgeon, the great equalizer is that you'll never be a billionaire.
Out of Reach?
So, who can become a billionaire? How much would you have to have on hand every year to invest and be a billionaire at a time where you could still spend it? If you could put away $1 million a year, you're still looking at about 80 years of saving or 64-65 years of investing before the big payoff. Even actors and athletes who can make millions a year, rarely have the staying power to make it every year for 80 years. (How much are the top sports pros making? Find out in Top 7 Pro Athlete Contracts.)
So, sorry to come to such a heartbreaking conclusion, but it's hard for anyone to become a billionaire using traditional methods. To see a billion dollars during your lifetime (40 years of saving), you would need to put nearly $5.5 million into a fund that mirrors the Dow's average growth of 6.68%.
The Bottom Line
Though there are over 1,000 billionaires in the world, it's still an exceptional occurrence, and is owing to momentous business dealings, kick-starting an industry, inventing a much-desired service or concept, and other extraordinary events. For the rest of us, maybe we'll just have to make due with a million. (Depressed? Don't be. Check out our Millionaire Calculator to see how much you need to save to become a millionaire.)
Monday, August 16, 2010
Capture Profits Using Bands And Channels
5:10 AM by xoiper · 0 التعليقات
. fx trading .forex demo. currency trading . forex broker . trading forex
Widely known for their ability to incorporate volatility and capture price action, Bollinger bands have been a favorite staple of traders in the FX market. However, there are other technical options that traders in the currency markets can apply to capture profitable opportunities in swing action. Lesser-known band indicators such as Donchian channels, Keltner channels and STARC bands are all used to isolate such opportunities। Also used in the futures and options markets, these technical indicators have a lot to offer given the vast liquidity and technical nature of the FX forum। Differing in underlying calculations and interpretations, each study is unique because it highlights different components of the price action. Here we explain how Donchian channels, Keltner channels and STARC bands work and how you can use them to your advantage in the FX market.
Donchian channels are price channel studies that are available on most charting packages and can be profitably applied by both novice and expert traders. Although the application was intended mostly for the commodity futures market, these channels can also be widely used in the FX market to capture short-term bursts or longer-term trends. Created by Richard Donchian, considered to be the father of successful trend following, the study contains the underlying currency fluctuations and aims to place profitable entries upon the start of a new trend through penetration of either the lower or upper band. Based on a 20-period moving average (and thus sometimes referred to as a moving average indicator), the application additionally establishes bands that plot the highest high and lowest low. As a result, the following signals are produced:
- A buy, or long, signal is created when the price action breaks through and closes above the upper band.
- A sell, or short, signal is created when the price action breaks through and closes below the lower band.
| Figure 1: A typical example of the effectiveness of Donchian channels |
| Source: FXtrek Intellicharts |
In Figure 1, we see the short, one hour time-framed euro/U.S. dollar currency pair chart. We can see that, prior to December 8, the price action is contained in tight consolidation within the parameters of the bands. Then, at 2am on December 8, the price of the euro makes a run on the session and closes above the band at Point A. This is a signal for the trader to enter a long position and liquidate short positions in the market. If entered correctly, the trader will gain almost 100 pips in the short intraday burst.
Keltner Channels
Another great channel study that is used in multiple markets by all types of traders is the Keltner channel. The application was introduced by Chester W. Keltner (in his book "How To Make Money In Commodities" (1960)) and later modified by famed futures trader Linda B. Raschke. Raschke altered the application to take into account average true range calculation over 10 periods. As a result, the volatility-based technical indicator bears many similarities to Bollinger bands. The difference between the two studies is simply that Keltner's channels represent volatility using the high and low prices, while Bollinger's studies rely on the standard deviation. Nonetheless, the two studies share similar interpretations and tradable signals in the currency markets. Like Bollinger bands, Keltner channel signals are produced when the price action breaks above or below the channel bands. Here, however, as the price action breaks above or below the top and bottom barriers, a continuation is favored over a retracement back to the median or opposite barrier. (To learn more, see Discovering Keltner Channels And The Chaikin Oscillator and The Basics Of Bollinger Bands.)
- If the price action breaks above the band, the trader should consider initiating long positions while liquidating short positions.
- If the price action breaks below the band, the trader should consider initiating short positions while exiting long, or buy, positions.
| Figure 2: Three profitable opportunities are presented to the trader through Keltner. |
| Source: FXtrek Intellicharts |
By applying the Keltner study to a daily charted British pound/Japanese yen currency cross pair we can see that the price action breaks above the upper barrier, signaling for the trader to initiate long positions. Placing effective entries, the FX trader will have the opportunity to effectively capture profitable swings higher and at the same time exit efficiently, maximizing profits. No other example is more visually stunning than the initial break above the upper barrier. Here, the trader can initiate above the close of the initial session burst above at Point A on July 17. After the initial entry is placed above the close of the session, the trader is able to capture approximately 300 pips before the price action pulls back to retest support. Subsequently, another position can be initiated at Point B, where momentum once again takes the position approximately 350 pips higher
STARC Bands
Also similar to the Bollinger band technical indicator, STARC (or Stoller Average Range Channels) bands are calculated to incorporate market volatility. Developed by Manning Stoller in the 1980s, the bands will contract and expand depending on the fluctuations in the average true range component. The main difference between the two interpretations is that STARC bands help to determine the higher probability trade rather than standard deviations containing the price action. Simply put, the bands will allow the trader to consider higher or lower risk opportunities rather than a return to a median.
- Price action that rises to the upper band offers a lower risk sell opportunity and a high-risk buy situation.
- Price action that declines to the lower band offers a lower risk buy opportunity and a high-risk sell situation.
Figure 3: A great risk to reward is presented through this STARC bands example in the NZD/USD. |
| Source: FXtrek Intellicharts |
Looking at New Zealand dollar/U.S. dollar currency pair presented in Figure 3, we see that the price action has been mounting a bullish rise over the course of November, and the currency pair looks ripe for a retracement of sorts. Here, the trader can apply the STARC indicator as well as a price oscillator (Stochastic, in this case) to confirm the trade. After overlaying the STARC bands, the trader can see a low-risk sell opportunity as we approach the upper band at Point A. Waiting for the second candle in the textbook evening star formation to close, the individual can take advantage by placing an entry below the close of the session. Confirming with the downside cross in the Stochastic oscillator, Point X, the trader will be able to profit almost 150 pips in the day's session as the currency plummets from 0.7150 to an even 0.7000 figure. Notice that the price action touches the lower band at that point, signaling a low-risk buy opportunity or a potential reversal in the short-term trend.
Putting It All Together
Now that we've examined trading opportunities using channel-based technical indicators, it's time to take a detailed look at two more examples and to explain how to capture such profit windfalls.
In Figure 4 we see a great short-term opportunity in the British pound/Swiss franc currency cross pair. We'll put the Donchian technical indicator to work and go through the process step by step.
| Figure 4: Applying the Donchian channel study, we see a couple of extremely profitable opportunities in the short time frame of a one-hour chart. |
| Source: FXtrek Intellicharts |
These are the steps to follow:
1. Apply the Donchian channel study on the price action. Once the indicator is applied, the opportunities should be clearly visible, as you are looking to isolate periods where the price action breaks above or below the study's bands.
2. Wait for the close of the session that is potentially above or below the band. A close is needed for the setup as the pending action could very well revert back within the band's parameters, ultimately nullifying the trade.
3. Place the entry at slightly above or below the close. Once momentum has taken over, the directional bias should push the price past the close.
4. Always use stop management. Once the entry has been executed, the stop should always be considered, as in any other situation.
Applying the Donchian study in Figure 4, we find that there have been several profitable opportunities in the short time span. Point A is a prime example: here, the session closes below the bottom channel, lending to a downside trend. As a result, the entry is placed at the low of the session after the close, at 2.2777. The subsequent stop will be placed slightly above the high of the session, at 2.2847. Once you are in the market, you can either liquidate your short position on the first leg down or hold on to the sell. Ideally, the position would be held in retaining a legitimate risk to reward ratio. However, in the event the position is closed, you may consider a re-initiation at Point B. Ultimately, the trade will profit over 120 pips, justifying the high stop.
Defining a Keltner
1. Overlay the Keltner channel indicator onto the price action. As with the Donchian example, the opportunities should be clearly visible, as you are looking for penetration of the upper or lower bands.
2. Establish a session close of the candle that is the closest or within the channel's parameters.
3. Place the entry four to five points below the high or low of the session's candle.
4. Money management is applied by placing a stop slightly below the session's low or above the session's high price.
Let's apply these steps to the British pound/U.S. dollar example below.
| Figure 5: A tricky but profitable catch using the Keltner channel |
| Source: FXtrek Intellicharts |
In Figure 5, we see a very profitable opportunity in the British pound/U.S. dollar major currency pair on the daily time frame. Already testing the upper barrier twice in recent weeks, the trader can see a third attempt as the price action rises on July 27 at Point A. What needs to be obtained at this point is a definitive close above the barrier, constituting a break above and signaling the initiation of a long position. Once the chartist receives the clear break and closes above the barrier, the entry will be placed five points above the high of the closed session (entry). This will ensure that momentum is on the side of the trade and the advance will continue. The notion will place our entry precisely at 1.8671. Subsequently, our stop will be placed below the low price by one to two points, or in this case at 1.8535. The trade pays off as the price action moves higher in the following weeks with our profits maximized at the move's high of 1.9128. Giving us a profit of over 400 pips in less than a month, the risk reward is maximized at more than a 3:1 ratio.
Conclusion
Although Bollinger bands are more widely known, Donchian channels, Keltner channels and STARC bands have proved to offer comparably profitable opportunities. By diversifying your knowledge and experience in different band-based indicators, you'll be able to seek a multitude of other opportunities in the FX market. These lesser-known bands can add to the repertoire of both the novice and the seasoned trader.
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